The Revitalist

So, now that it's December (yikes!), thoughts are turning to 2008. Trendwatching kicks off the usual end of year looks ahead with their report 8 important consumer trends for 2008 (via CoolTown Studios). These are eight buzz-word named trends that have sprouted in the consumer marketplace this year and are expected to grow into other arenas.

Status Sphere - mix and match lifestyles and their consumer goods
Premiumization - even water has gone premium - nothing can escape
Snack Culture - bitesize tidbits of everything - try it, you'll like it
Online Oxygen - you need your online access like you need oxygen
Eco-Iconic - show off your eco-credentials
Brand Butlers - taking it to the people, e.g. Charmin-branded public restrooms
MIY – Make It Yourself - customization, design it yourself - web is key here
Crowdmining - the power of many small participants, e.g. MyFootballClub.com

It's easy to see how some of these are applicable to development and urban design. With Status Spheres, the idea is that people no longer want to pigeonholed into one group stereotype but want to mix things up a little. Sure they like to eat organic and go hiking, but they are also local sports fans and manage their stock portfolio closely (or something like that). We have seen several website offer the ability for people to play online putting furniture into the floor plans of the units – MIY. The Eco-Iconic is an easy one to apply – look at Monarch on the Merrimack. And these are the obvious ones...

Nicolas Retsinas from Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies was on NPR's Morning Edition this morning wondering how the fallout from the housing market downturn will effect downtown revitalizations across the country. As he points out, many of the condo buyers in emerging neighborhoods are young couples, perhaps first time home buyers, who will no longer have as many mortgage options as they did a few years ago. Also, the empty nester wave that we all talk about so much is likely to be slowed down by the fact that it is harder for them to sell their suburban split level right now. Just another reminder that there is never a dull moment in the development business.

WBUR has been running a week-long series on immigration in Massachusetts and how immigrants have helped to build and shape our economy over the years. While the state may be losing population in certain demographic segments, it's immigrant population is growing – now at a 50 year high. For developers, the immigrant population is more than workforce, they are consumers of our product: tenants in our buildings, buyers of our condos, business owners looking for commercial space. In Lawrence, we have gotten to know the Central and South American immigrant groups that make the city so colorful, and in Lowell, we have learned about and worked with the Cambodian community there.

The Oxford American Dictionary has pronounced that locavore is the word of the year for 2007. If you're not in the know, a locavore is someone who eats only locally grown food, originally within a 100 mile radius. The term was coined by a group of four women in San Francisco who were determined to meet the 100 mile qualification.

While grocery shopping isn't really a development related topic, urban amenities like farmer's markets and co-ops are. The push for a locavore lifestyle is just one of the many "act locally" movements that are gaining momentum. There is a growing demographic (many well educated and with disposable income) who are choosing to live, work and raise families in communities that have a particular (peculiar) sense of place. People want a more active connection to their surroundings and their neighbors, and every city and town has some resources that they can parley into local flavor. So give the people what they want.

The Globe ran a rather bleak story on Lawrence's struggles with foreclosures this weekend. The North Lawrence neighborhood, dominated by triple-deckers, duplexes and condo-ed Victorians, is the hardest hit with an estimated 1 in 10 owner-occupied homes under foreclosure. The article compares this to the mid-1990's when many houses burnt in suspicious fires, possibly insurance frauds, and the increasing number of burnt or abandoned houses led to the overall decline of the neighborhood. The concern is that the prosperity of the past decade was largely buoyed by subprime loans, many predatory, and a false sense of the depth of financial resources. Those who bought then are now facing rising adjustable interest rates, softening of housing related business income (house cleaners, painters, etc.), inability to sell their homes as prices collapse, and the prospect of foreclosure. The videos that accompany the article put a very human face on the issue and offer little hope.

In our work in Lawrence, we see a different side of the community, one that does see a brighter future ahead and growth within the community, despite the challenges. One organization that we have worked closely with is Lawrence Community Works, not mentioned in the article, who offer financial literacy training and home ownership programs (among others). They have seen the people in their programs able to ride out the storm, having made safe investments. I suppose the reality for Lawrence's future will, to some degree, come down to perception – a battle between defeat and hope for future. The city, the business community and the community service organizations will need to provide the leadership.

The site design for 246 W17 features a pop-y soundtrack, cartoon people and a refreshing color scheme, all in an effort to attract youthful, diverse and easygoing residents.

Would you rather live in cool jazz or classical strings or soothing Electronica? The NY Times has noticed that more and more high end condo websites are using music to set the mood and attract potential buyers. The music is meant to work in concert with the images and text on the site to convey a sense of the place and to subtly screen customers. Classical music tends to skew older and more traditional, jazz is young and modern but not too young, electronica invites swinging singles. Not surprisingly, very few sites feature rock or pop music, although the article does mention 246w17.com, which not only features a "B-52's meets 'Sesame Street'" soundtrack, but also bouncing cartoon people. (Really, it's cooler than it sounds.) But personally my favorite part of the article is where a professor of music says that sites featuring the vague world-lounge genre tap into "a profound fantasy of cosmopolitanism."

Fast Company has published their list of Fast Cities 2007. What is a Fast City?

"In other words, there are winners in this battle for the future. We call them Fast Cities. They are cauldrons of creativity where the most important ideas and the organizations of tomorrow are centered. They attract the best and brightest. They are great places to work and live."

Fast Company used Richard Florida-collaborator Kevin Stolarick's numbers, the CEOs for Cities' CityVitals survey from Impresa, Inc., sustainability data from SustainLane, and other info from the Institute for the Future. The rankings called out particular cities in nine different categories: Creative-Class Meccas, Green Leaders, Culture Centers, Global Villages, High-Tech Hot Spots, Unexpected Oases, R&D Clusters, Urban Innovators, and Startup Hubs.

So the question is: how does Boston rank? Well, it is listed as one of the Cities on the Verge in the R&D Clusters section. I'm sure that's not where the civic leaders would prefer, but it's hard not to notice the affordability issues that are spurring young professionals to seek other locations. Still, there is enough activity going on to put us on the map, and at least we're not one of the Slow Cities.

Snapshot of Boston area, houses for sale on craigslist in the $300k-$500k range.

After falling down the rabbit hole of other people's blogrolls, I stumbled on a very cool new mashup of Google Maps and craigslist housing ads, called HousingMaps.com (via Grow-a-Brain). The site maps houses for sale, for rent, sublets, and rooms for rent on craigslist and maps them onto Google Maps. One cool feature is that when you click on a pin, a popup shows the craigslist ad heading, price and any photos included in the listing; you can then click through to the ad. You can filter the maps by types of listing and price ranges. This site would be super helpful if you're not overly familiar with an area and don't know the streets and neighborhoods mentioned in the ads.

The weekend real estate section in the Globe had a good article on small, ex-urban towns drawing artists to their downtowns. The primary example was Renaissance Lofts in Marlborough, which is in need of downtown reinvestment but seems an unlikely place for an artist colony. And you have to give Deborah Fairbanks credit, the before pictures of the mill with its windows mostly blocked in are pretty grim. It took some vision to see that and think artists. The article also quotes Richard Florida who says, "You'll see more of this in the suburbs. And it's all about the fact that they're proximate to Boston. In Arkansas or the Dakotas, this might not succeed." That's good news for some of the more remote mills, ones that aren't necessarily right next to the commuter rail. Let's hope this project succeeds and sparks ideas for some of the more challenging buildings.

A little light reading for your sunny, summer weekend: Mapping the Growth of Older America: Seniors and Boomers in the Early 21st Century by William Frey from The Brookings Institution (via The Creativity Exchange). The Creativity Exchange's post was less sensitively titled "The Geography of Getting Old." Essentially, the question is: with the senior boom looming, where will they be and where will senior housing/services be hardest pressed? The answer:

The dark orange is 140%+ increase in seniors age 65 and older.

• The aging of the baby boom generation makes pre-seniors this decade's fastest growing age group, expanding nearly 50 percent in size from 2000 to 2010.
• Pre-senior populations are growing rapidly everywhere, especially in economically dynamic Sun Belt areas previously known for their youth, such as Las Vegas, Austin, Atlanta, and Dallas.
• The World War II generation currently entering its senior years is growing fastest in the Intermountain West and South Atlantic states, especially suburban areas there.
• In states where senior populations will grow fastest over the next 35 years, "aging in place" rather than migration will drive this growth.
• Projected boomer aging will cause the suburbs of New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, and Los Angeles to be considerably "older" than the cities themselves by 2040. 

There is clearly an opportunity here to provide housing and services that meets this group's needs and to combine it with smart growth elements that by happenstance are senior friendly, like walkable neighborhoods that engage people with their neighbors, retail accessible to residential areas and residents on foot, public transportation as an effective alternative to driving. The work that we are already engaged in can easily be focused on this demographic.

Although, I read this and thought of a Wall Street Journal article that I read this week about how practically none of us are saving enough for retirement – gives you chills.